Wednesday, April 16, 2008

I bet she is feeling bitter right now

Holy cow. Obama has always been trailing Clinton in Pennsylvania, often by double digit margins. Now that enough time has passed for "Bittergate" to show up in the polls, I see that Clinton is now leading in the low single digits and one poll even shows Obama winning (also in the low single digits).

Translation: "Bittergate" hasn't amounted to a hill of beans, and the state is very much up for grabs... and nobody that grabs it will have a mandate. That translates into very bad news for Clinton, who needs a huge margin (like by twenty points) to even begin to cut into Obama's delegate lead.

Even worse, the last two Indiana polls show Obama beating her in this state. Again, even if she wins Indiana, odds are against any large margin to help boost her delegate count. Especially since the North Carolina primary has been showing Obama with double digits over Clinton for well over a month.

If we assumed the latest polling turns out to be the same numbers on election day (which they never are), then Clinton is looking at gaining a whopping fifteen pledged delegates and only be 155 short... and will need at least 75% of the remaining superdelegates to get on her side to even have a chance of beating Obama. Regardless, she'll need to pull sixteen points ahead of Obama in every single remaining contest to even have a chance of winning if the superdelegates split fifty fifty. Good luck pulling that off...

IMO, this primary is over and we are just watching the continued crumpling of Clinton's presidential aspirations.

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