Monday, April 21, 2008

Psychic Predictions for Pennsylvania

My guess for tomorrow's primary in Pennsylvania...

Clinton 53%, Obama 47%
Six point lead for Clinton
83 delegates for Clinton, 75 for Obama

Meaning... she would be down 160 pledged delegates, rather than 168. Including super delegates, she would only be down 136 rather than by 144. In terms of the percentage of delegates on her side, she would have raised her total from 47.72% to 47.95%. A whopping quarter of a percentage point.

So long as she wins a single percentage point, I'm sure she'll paraphrase Dr. Suess tomorrow night, "a win is a win, no matter how small."

It would be a win, and it will give her a handful of delegates, but at best it's a PR victory that might keep her it the race until May 6th and woo a few more superdelegates. Unfortunately for her, without a sixteen percent victory in Pennsylvania, her goose is cooked.

Thanks to the way the Democrats primary race is structured (and the fact that she is in the red when it comes to delegates), she can't just squeak by with a win or two, but needs to win big to overcome Obama's delegate lead. Even worse for Clinton is the fact that polls show Obama leading Indiana and North Carolina (the last "big" delegate states), and with Obama getting double digits in NC for weeks.

My bet is that she'll squeak by in Pennsylvania, her campaign will continue on life support until the next races, and then she'll at best squeak a victory out of Indiana... and be completely crushed in North Carolina. At that point, the Democratic race will be (for all practical purposes) be over on May 6th.

Then again, given how she is going deeper into debt, it might be over before May 6th. *shrug* Time will tell.

All I know is that when it comes to Pennsylvania, we'll see tomorrow night!

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