Monday, May 5, 2008

State of the Race

Obama just got six more super delegates today than Clinton did, and now push the widening gap of delegates between the two of them to right before the Pennsylvania primary. In effect, Pennsylvania isn't helping her overcome Obama's lead anymore... which was what she really needs to do to win.

So, Clinton is behind 143 delegates. What about tomorrow? Indiana and North Carolina have 187 delegates up for grabs. Unfortunately, Clinton is once again in a deep pit because she hasn't been able to gain a sufficiently large number of votes to eat into Obama's lead. Remember that 10% double digit lead in Pennsylvania? That netted her about fifteen more delegates, all of which have been wiped out in the past week. In order to make a significant and lasting impact in the race, she needs to pull off at least 16 percent victories... and given the election so far... that doesn't looks very realistic. According to upcoming polling, it looks like she will get West Virginia and Kentucky by twenty five percent margins... but West Virginia only has 28 delegates and Kentucky 51. Worse, on the same day as Kentucky's election, Oregon's 52 delegates are up for grabs and Obama is polling double digits in that state.

IMO, Indiana is a do or die state for Clinton. It looks like she'll get it... but if not her goose is cooked. Her wins aren't eating into Obama's lead, so the only thing she has left is to spin each win into a PR victory and allow her candidacy to continue to limp along and wreck the party.

Anyway, polling tomorrow looks like Clinton will take Indiana by six points (53%/47%) and Obama will take North Carolina by eight points (54%/46%).

If she loses both, she's dead. If she win's both, Obama is going to be beat up in the media until the last vote (June 7th) and hopefully by then we'll know where the remaining super delegates are sitting.

Who knows? Maybe the PR victory will count more than the delegates... These are the Clintons we are talking about...

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