Monday, May 5, 2008

Florida and Michigan

The Clintons keep talking about Florida and Michigan's votes needing to count, so I figured I'd run the numbers to see how she would benefit.

Florida voted 50% Clinton, 33% Obama, and 14% Edwards. With 211 delegates at stake, that means that Clinton would have received 106 delegates. Pretty good, but Obama would have managed to grab 70 delegates, to knock her lead down to 36. Thirty six is a good number, but a long way from erasing Obama's 143 point delegate lead. Still, it would be a good step.

Michigan is another beast altogether. Her name was on the ballot and Obama's wasn't. She won the state by 55%, but "Uncommitted" received 40% of the vote. Unfortunately for Obama, his last name isn't Uncommitted. Meaning out of state with 157 delegates, she would rack up eighty six of them. Combined with the thirty six delegates from Florida, she would get an impressive 122 delegates, which would smash most of Obama's lead ... but not all of it. Even if Florida and Michigan were handed to her on a silver platter, she would still be 21 delegates behind.

Even this late in the game, if she keeps acting like a Republican, she'll rack up 21 delegates and capture the nomination. If that happened, she would need to win the 54% of the remaining delegates and half of the remaining super delegates.

That's the best case scenario. If the DNC awards Obama with the uncommitted Michigan votes (or even a fraction of them), that would net up to sixty three delegates, which would significantly cut into her 86 from the state. The full sixty three would leave Obama with a fifty nine point lead, and would leave her scrambling for fifteen percent victory margins.

Odds are this won't happen, but then again, odds are Michigan and Florida's delegates aren't going to be seated exactly as the vote was cast.

Time will tell as to how the DNC will handle it. If history is any judge, I'm sure they will drop the ball. ;)

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