Sunday, August 12, 2012

Romney should have picked Rubio

Ignore national polls. They are nice, but that isn't how the President is elected. (If it was, the Gore would have been president during 9/11.) 

Instead, focus on state polls and electoral college maps. One that I recommend is from Real Clear Politics (the link is below). RCP is right-leaning, but are pretty damn accurate in their methodology, unlike FOX, which twists themselves into pretzels trying to convince themselves that McCain had a chance.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

When it comes to that map, the stuff in blue and red (regardless of shade) is pretty darn reliable. Those states will cast their electoral vote for the party in question. The real question is who gets the toss up states. On RCP's map, those are in grey.

Right now it projects that Obama has 237 electoral votes and Romney has 191. They need 270 to win, so Obama is just short 33 while Romney is short 79. This means that Romney could win virtually every single toss up state, but if Obama just grabs Florida (29) and New Hampshire (4), then he's won a second term.

Now, on the toss up column, click on each state and you'll see the latest polling. What you'll see is that Obama is narrowly winning every single one of them, except North Carolina. North Carolina's 15 electoral votes aren't enough for Romney to win, so if the election was held today, Obama would have a second term.

It's still way too early, but it's a nice place to be before the election.

Overall, Republicans are raising money like crazy, and that money will ultimately flood the airwaves of those toss up states, but Obama doesn't have to win over nearly as many as Romney does.  Romney is going to need that money to try turning the tide in all of those states, although that won't be the magic bullet to solve his unfavorability problem. Unfortunately for him, money doesn't buy elections. If it did, Meg Whitman would be the Governor of California. 

Speaking of bad news for Romney, there are only a few more planned events to turn the national mood (each party's convention & the debates), and those don't look good for Romney. Conventions are almost always a wash when it comes to polling data, and I'm highly skepetical that Romney is going to out debate Obama. Again, back to the favorability argument.

Finally, speaking of Ryan as Romney's VP pick: Ryan is the mastermind behind the GOP's "let's replace medicare with vouchers for a fixed amount of money" plan.  How do you think that is going to play out in Florida?   Frankly, I don't see "Medicare gets phased out and you are shit out of luck when you get older." being a great selling point for most of the country either...

Regardless, if Florida goes to Obama, the election is over. Romney would have to win every single toss up state to win, and the odds of that aren't good. The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that Romney should have picked Rubio as his VP candidate.

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